The Department of Marine Ecology has a number of projects which deal with climate changes and development of climate scenarios:

Development and modelling of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea in relation to climate changes
Climate changes, most important global warming and increased precipitation, will negatively affect hypoxia in the Baltic Sea. Models advancing our quantitative description of the mechanisms underlying hypoxia in the Baltic Sea will be developed in the project HYPER that will allow for assessing future trends under scenarios of climate change and managing nutrient inputs. The models developed will be linked to the NEST decision support system used for allocating nutrient reductions in the Baltic Sea Action Plan, such that the ecological consequences of the action plan can be assessed in light of climate changes.

- Contact person: Jacob Carstensen - jac@dmu.dk

The Arctic marine ecosystem
The broad interdisciplinary consortium assembled in the project 'Arctic Tipping Points' (ATP) aims to identify the elements of the Arctic marine ecosystem likely to show abrupt changes in response to climate changes, and establish the levels of the corresponding climate drivers inducing the regime shift for these tipping elements. ATP will evaluate the consequences of crossing those tipping points, and the associated risks and opportunities for economic activities dependent on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

- Contact person: Dorte Krause-Jensen - dkj@dmu.dk

Methane emission in the Baltic Sea: Gas storage and effects of climate change and eutrophication (BALTIC GAS)
An international group of geoscientists recently concluded that "Abnormally high levels of methane gas in seafloor sediments could pose a major hazard to coastal populations within the next 100 years through their impact on climate change and sea level rise." (Best et al. 2006). On that time scale, the group predicts eutrophication can accelerate natural seabed gas generation by enhancing organic matter deposition which upon burial is converted to methane. Gassy sediments occur widespread in the Baltic Sea but their magnitude of gas storage and potential instability are not known. Hot-spots of shallow gas enhance ebullition and, thus, emission of green-house (over 20 times more effective in trapping heat in the atmosphere than CO2) and of toxic hydrogen sulphide and they pose hazards to seabed structures such as wind farms, pipelines, power or communications cables, and off-shore drilling operations.

The consequences of enhanced methane generation for future sustainable ecosystem functioning or for the potential degradation of habitats in the Baltic Sea are currently not predictable. BALTIC GAS aims to understand how climate change and long-term eutrophication affect the accumulation of shallow gas and the emission of methane and hydrogen sulphide from the seabed to the water column and atmosphere. Will future climate-dependent changes in temperature and ventilation of the deep Baltic Sea, combined with continued organic carbon loading, trigger a massive gas release from the seabed?

- Contact person: Henrik Fossing - hfo@dmu.dk

Effects of climate changes on oxygen depletion
Development of hypoxia is generally regulated by the climate conditions and the nutrient concentrations. If the temperature rises, this will increase the risk of hypoxia in the Danish coastal waters. In the future, oxygen depletion events will be much more frequent and severe if the temperature as expected increases with several degrees during this century and if the nutrients levels are not reduced further to compensate for the increasing temperature. The National Environmental Research Institute coordinates a research project "ECODYN" about the interactions between the climate conditions and the oxygen dynamics in the seas around Denmark and how climate changes will affect the marine ecosystem in general. More information about the project is available on ecodyn.dmu.dk.

- Contact person: Jørgen Hansen - joh@dmu.dk