The HYSCENE project: What are the environmental challenges in a society based on hydrogen energy?

Project plan as submitted in January 2006. Use the menu on the left to access other information on the HYSCENE project.

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Environmental and Health Impact Assessment of Scenarios for Renewable Energy Systems with Hydrogen (HYSCENE)

1. Research idea and plan

The aim of the present project is to improve our understanding of the environmental impacts and related socio-cultural and welfare economic impacts of a renewable energy system where hydrogen is an important element. The objective of the project is to enhance model development for the environmental and health impacts and related societal impacts of a renewable energy system with hydrogen.

The vision of a renewable energy system with hydrogen as an important energy carrier requires a technological transformation of the present pre-dominantly fossil energy system.   It involves the production of hydrogen with renewable energy sources, distribution of hydrogen in pipelines and e.g. new filling stations for cars, new technologies for use of hydrogen e.g. fuel cell cars etc. Such a hydrogen economy promises large environmental benefits for air pollution. Fuel cells combine oxygen from the air with hydrogen to produce electricity and only emit harmless water. When traditional combusting of fossil fuels is replaced the related emissions of pollutants are avoided. Reduced CO₂ emissions will reduce the green house effects. Furthermore, air quality problems in large cities and related public health problems will be solved (Jacobsen et al., 2005). Ground level ozone will decrease and reduce related health problems and agricultural production losses. In addition, a reduction of environmental problems related to the deposition of air pollutants e.g. acidification and eutrofication will  improve the natural environment for flora and fauna. However, the production, distribution and use of hydrogen will increase the leakage of hydrogen to the atmosphere. Recent research indicates that hydrogen may be involved in processes leading to increased depletion of the ozone layer and an increase in the green house effect (Tromp et al. 2003).

A pro-active environmental impact assessment of new technologies like hydrogen as an energy carrier is very important. It is estimated that between 3 and 10% of hydrogen will escape during storage, use etc. leading to an increased hydrogen concentration in the atmosphere (Schultz et al. 2003). Hydrogen represents an atmospheric sink for OH. OH is the most important reactant in the atmosphere for the removal of pollutants including numerous greenhouse gases. Therefore, increased use of hydrogen may lead to an increased greenhouse effect. Furthermore, hydrogen is transported into the stratosphere, where it is an important source of water. Water in the stratosphere is a factor that increases ozone depletion. Therefore higher levels of hydrogen in the atmosphere will enhance ozone depletion.

Elements of the overall methodology of the project is outlined in the figure below that describes a schematic outline of a model for impact assessment of energy system with hydrogen.

The overall scope and demarcation of the project is the following. The project will define two scenarios (reference and a realistic scenario) for hydrogen demands for electricity production, space heating, and for the transport sector. The project takes existing Nordic hydrogen scenarios as a starting point for further development. The time period considered is 2005-2050. The emissions of air pollutants and the leakage of hydrogen for the different energy systems will be assessed and linkages between scenario models, emission models and air quality models will be developed. The impacts on atmospheric chemistry as a result of more hydrogen in the atmosphere will be analysed, and the results will be used in already existing regional air pollution models. The environmental impacts will be estimated with focus on air quality (including lifetime of possible greenhouse gases), deposition, human exposure and public health. The impacts will be illustrated in a number of case studies that reflect different geographic scales from regional to local. The replacement of fossil fuel based technology with hydrogen based technology will have important societal impacts, some of which will be analysed. The project will contribute to welfare economic analysis by pricing the expected change in the risk of death (an important external benefit). Due to limited funding the project will not be able to analyse the expected macro-economic consequences of the change in technology use   (e.g. investments and employment effects).

1.1 Scenarios in a renewable energy system with hydrogen as an important energy carrier

The main objective of the scenarios is to enable environmental assessments of hydrogen in a substantial role as energy carrier and to study worst-case conditions for the potentially negative environmental impacts. Since any penetration of hydrogen in the energy and transport system is likely to be slow, it is crucial to use a sufficiently long time frame to enable assessment of the full environmental impacts. Hence the time frame is the year 2050, which will allow a full transition to a hydrogen-based energy system (or approaching full transition). Both stationary and transport applications of hydrogen are included and key technologies for production, distribution and storage of hydrogen are covered.

The scenarios will be based on scenarios from Nordic H₂ Energy Foresight, a recently completed energy research project financed by the Nordic Innovation Centre and by the Nordic Energy Research (www.h2foresight.info). Beyond 2015 the Nordic H₂ Energy Foresight scenarios are only outlined, and they end in 2030. Moreover they represent quite moderate hydrogen utilisation rates. The scenario in this project will include a higher energy coverage by hydrogen than the Nordic scenarios, particularly on the very long term. The scenario will reflect a realistic development provided appropriate promotional instruments are introduced. In case of major inconsistencies during the time before 2015 these will be removed. The energy system scenarios will be modelled and simulated in the energy market model Balmorel (Ravn 2004). The focus will be on Denmark , but with due regard to international developments within technology and energy systems. The scenario will be compared to a reference development but the main emphasis will be on the modelling of the scenario.

1.2 Emissions of air pollutants and leakage of hydrogen from energy system

The aim of the emission estimates is to quantify the total emissions from energy production and transportation in the reference scenario (business as usual) and the hydrogen scenario and hence assessing the potential emission reductions. The calculations are made for the greenhouse gases CO₂, CH4 and N2O (the CO₂ emission share being by far the dominant part), acidifying emission components SO2, NOx, NMVOC and potential harmful emissions of particulate matter.

For both stationary and mobile sources, forecast models already developed at NERI will be used for scenario calculations (Illerup et al., 2002a,b). For stationary sources, the NERI model has a built-in facility to use detailed technical information and emission knowledge for single stacks or plants in the energy production and industrial sectors (Nielsen et al. (2003), Nielsen et al. (2004a, b). More specifically, the contribution of this task will be to calculate the potential emission reductions coming from the substitution of conventional fuels and technologies with hydrogen fuel. In the project, emissions from already existing and planned energy plants will be estimated, as well as the total emissions from the production and use of hydrogen. For mobile sources, comprising road traffic, non-road machinery and other modes of transport a forecast model has already been developed at NERI (Winther, 2002, 2004). For road transport and non-road machinery, the model base data is at present sufficiently detailed to allow reduction scenarios to be described, and for subsequent emission calculations to be carried out.

One important task will be to incorporate these detailed background data into the specific project scenarios and distribute emissions geographically to meet the requirements of the air quality models on regional and local scales. Another important task will be to estimate the emission savings associated with the switch from fossil fuels to hydrogen. Along with the emission calculations of the above mentioned emission components, the potential leakage of H₂ from the energy production and transportation system will be estimated.

1.3 Environmental and health impact assessment

The necessary linkages will be developed between the emission scenarios defined in section 1.2 and the air quality models referred to below.

The environmental impacts will be conceptually described with focus on air quality, deposition, human exposure and public health. A few environmental and health indicators will be selected to demonstrate the model development. For these selected impacts the different scenarios will be studied in a few case studies that reflect different geographic scales, from regional to local. On the regional scale, the hemispheric air chemistry transport model (DEHM) will be used to estimate air quality and deposition on a coarse grid that covers the entire area of Denmark (17x17 km2) (Brandt et al. 2001; Frohn et al. 2001;2002). Since the regional concentration levels in Denmark are determined by emissions on a European and even Northern hemispherical scale, the assumptions of the scenarios defined for Denmark will have to be extrapolated to these areas. On the local scale the Greater Copenhagen Area will serve as a case study area. The Greater Copenhagen Area encompasses about 1.8 million people in a varied environment including the capital of Copenhagen , a number of middle-sized and small cities, and rural areas. Very detailed GIS based data is available for this area with traffic data down to the scale of individual road links, population data for every single address, emission data for power stations, industrial sources, and space heating. Urban background concentrations will be modelled on a detailed grid (1x1 km2) with the UBM model (Berkowicz 2000b) and street concentrations will be modelled with the OSPM model (Berkowicz 2000a) for several hundred streets in the case study area, using the AIRGIS system (Jensen et al. 2001). Key air quality indicators for air quality could be particles while for deposition it could be sulphur and nitrogen compounds. The results will be related to WHO and EU air quality limit values, and to critical loads for various natural settings. Calculations will be performed for every decade in the scenario time period. Human exposure assessment will be carried out combining air pollution data with population data. Human exposure assessment will be conducted for Denmark on a coarse grid, while for the Greater Copenhagen Area a detailed grid will be applied. Population data (age, gender) will be based on the Central Person Registry (CPR) given for every single address.

The necessary linkages between the environmental impacts and related societal impacts will be developed based on current exposure-response relationships with focus on health impacts (Andersen et al. 2004).

1.4 Impacts on the atmosphere of increased H₂ levels due to H₂ leakages

Hydrogen leakage from an energy system with hydrogen as energy carrier will lead to an increase of H₂ in the atmosphere. At the same time NOx and NMHCs will be reduced due to the replacement of fossil fuels. This will reduce the photochemical activity in the troposphere. As a consequence the lifetime of a series of greenhouse gases will be longer, thereby increasing their concentration in the atmosphere (Schultz et al. 2003). Increased concentrations of green house gases will heat the surface layers of the troposphere and cool the stratosphere. Furthermore, hydrogen will lead to higher concentrations of water vapour in the stratosphere. Both these effects will increase the ozone depletion in the stratosphere (Tromp et al. 2003). One of the tasks of the present project will focus on analysing the impacts of more hydrogen on atmospheric chemistry in the lower part of the atmosphere, and study how this is affecting the physical and chemical processes that determine surface air quality. The results of the analysis will be used to improve the hemispheric air chemistry transport model (DEHM). The project comprises process studies in the laboratory to understand how increased levels of H₂ influence atmospheric processes. Monitoring of ground-level H₂ for validation of the air chemistry transport model might be part of NERI’s participation in the Galethea 3 expedition but these activities are not funded at the moment.

1.5 External benefits: Pricing a change in the risk of death

The replacement of fossil fuel based technologies with hydrogen based technologies is expected to have a number of positive health effects. In order to be able to make a complete welfare economic analysis of the shift of technology, it is important that the health effects are described not only as detailed as possible, but also that the effects are valued in accordance with the pricing principles used in other parts of the analysis. In this part of the project the aim is to investigate the possibilities for pricing the consequences of the technolo­gy shift for the risk of death. The subproject comprises the following two elements:

1. Recommendation of an empirical pricing method. It is important that the design of the empirical analysis on the one hand takes into account the limited knowledge of the consequences for the risk of death of using hydrogen instead of fossil fuel based technology, and on the other hand that the analysis is as theoretically correct as possible - cf. the discussion about pricing according to Value of a Statistical Life, Value of a Lost Life Year or Change in Expected Lifetime Utility. It falls outside the scope of this subproject to make a real empirical pricing study.
2. Sample calculations. It is outlined how the price of a change in the risk of death should be incorporated into the complete model system. As the basis for the calculations, existing prices are used and these prices are corrected to make them as theoretically correct as possible.

1.6 Societal aspects of scenarios for hydrogen based energy systems

In this project an integral part of the definition of scenarios will be a deeper analysis of societal and cultural aspects of developing and implementing a new energy system based on hydrogen and renewables. Any introduction of new energy tech­no­logies will necessarily take place in a societal context. They will have to be developed on the basis of and integrated into institutional settings and into practices for mobility, communication, production, recreation and daily lives of households. One aspect of this is the pattern of energy consumption. How is energy used, how is demand expected to develop, and is any sort of demand management built into the energy system? Another aspect is the structure of supply: Is the system based on centralised production and distribution of energy, or on decentralised production? (Ninni & Bonancina 2004, Jensen 2005, Evans, Guy & Marvin 1999, Rayner & Malone 1998). In any of these circumstances there will be a set of societal and cultural barriers for the development. Likewise there may be potentials for new energy systems in existing cultural orientations and institutional settings. Barriers, potentials and socio-cultural aspects of the scenarios will be analysed through qualitative evaluation of indicators for critical developments, and through examination of previous work on energy scenarios. (Thompson 1994, Thompson 1997, Rotmans & van Asselt 2001).

2. Contribution from the different partners and participating stakeholders and synergy among these

The project is multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary and involves different disciplines within natural and social sciences in an integrated way. RISØ National Laboratory, Department of System Analysis will focus on development of scenarios, National Environmental Research Institute, Department of Policy Analysis will focus on emissions, pricing and social aspects, while the Department of Atmospheric Environment will focus on environmental and health impacts. The qualifications of the different departments are described in further details in Appendix B Project Management.

3. Novel elements in relation to current national and internal research and relation to national strategies

The project will add new knowledge to our understanding of the environmental impacts (including impacts on atmospheric processes) and related societal impacts of a renewable energy system with hydrogen as an important element, and it will enhance model development within these fields. Danish research has primarily focused on the technical and system feasibility of hydrogen technology (e.g. the ongoing project “Towards a hydrogen-based society”, financed by the Danish Research Council and with participation by RISØ) while environmental and societal impacts have received less attention. However, the Danish capacities in these fields are likely to be able to make a significant contribution to international research. Furthermore, the project will support atmospheric research under COGCI –(Copenhagen Global Change Initiative at University of Copenhagen ), and the pricing part of the project (task 1.5) will supplement an ongoing PhD study at NERI. The PhD-project is concerned with the pricing of health effects of changes in the air quality under the AIRPOLIFE-project and financed by the Danish Research Council (PhD student Jytte Seested Nielsen, NERI). The project is also in line with international and national strategies to assess and promote hydrogen as energy carrier (Transport- og Energiministeriet 2005, Energistyrelsen 2005, EU Commission 2003).

4. Strategic significance, social benefits and industrial relevance

The project will generate the following new knowledge and methods:

• improved understanding of the environmental and health impacts and related societal impacts of a renewable energy system with hydrogen as an important element (including impacts on atmospheric processes)
• new model developments for the environmental and health impacts and related societal impacts of such an energy system
• new and expanded reference and hydrogen scenarios for 2005-2050
• estimation of emissions of air pollutants and leakage of hydrogen from the energy and transport system
• estimation of selected environmental impacts and health impacts on different geographic scales from regional to local scale
• pricing of a change in the risk of death as input for external benefits analyses
• analysis of social-cultural barriers, potentials and aspects of the scenarios.

5. Expected deliverables

• At least six articles in peer-reviewed international journals
• at least six presentations at international conferences
• contribution to education of four Post Docs and one PhD student
• a few popular articles in Danish.

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